The newsletter
Risky Tuesday
One risk event from somewhere in the world, classified against the Five Quadrants.
Issues
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What If AI Works?
Theos Evgeniou has worked on AI for thirty years. He is not worried about the machine that disproved a 1946 conjecture. He is worried about what happens when AI stops being digital and becomes a co-scientist.
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Wine Fraud
Rudy Kurniawan blended fresh California Pinot into faded Burgundy and sold it for millions. A decade on, collectors pay him to do it again, and prefer the fake.
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The Great Nickel Illusion
S$1.46 billion raised to buy nickel from a miner that had never produced an ounce, and sell it to a counterparty that had ceased trading. 947 investors, many of them lawyers and fund managers, checked none of it.
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Greensill and the Art of Risk Creep
A boring, well-diversified lending business that wandered from Q1 to Q4 one decision at a time: a little more concentration, a jet, an invoice for a sale that had not happened, and one indispensable insurer.
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Stuck in the Mud
The Ever Given was an engineering failure with engineering answers. The Strait of Hormuz is not, and no amount of dredging will help.
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Situational Awareness is Not Normal
A $45bn AI fund, 4x leverage and a 67% month, and why concentration, illiquidity and leverage never survive being held together.
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Forests as the Fuel
Europe's 2026 fire season against every year since 1980, and what decides whether a spark stays containable.
The next issue takes a different risk and a different quadrant.