Predictable

Documented, foreseeable risks that were ignored anyway. The failure is attention, not information.

Someone wrote it down before it happened. A report, an inspection, a memo, a complaint. The information existed and moved through the organisation, and the decision to act on it never got made.

How to spot it. Look for the paper trail that predates the event. In this quadrant it almost always exists.

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19Events in this quadrant

9Marked · behaved like another quadrant

18Arrived from another

Every event filed in Q1 Predictable

9 of these are marked: filed here, but running another quadrant’s mechanism by the end. The paperwork never changed.

Air Canada chatbot2024A tribunal held an airline liable for a refund policy its chatbot invented.
Synapse / Evolve2024'FDIC-insured' deposits froze when a ledger intermediary failed to reconcile.
Greensill Capital2021Boring invoice finance that hid concentrated, under-insured, speculative lending.Behaved like Q4 Where models die by the end
Zillow Offers2021An AI home-pricing model overpaid at scale and forced Zillow to exit.
WeWork failed IPO2019Valued at $47 billion as a tech unicorn. It leased buildings for 15 years and rented desks by the month.Behaved like Q4 Where models die by the end
PG&E bankruptcy / Camp Fire2019A worn hook on a tower unclimbed since 2001 killed 85 people and bankrupted the utility.Behaved like Q2 The Coconut by the end
Thomas Cook collapse2019178 years old, drowned in £1.7bn of debt. Its collapse left the state to fly 150,000 travellers home.
Carillion collapse2018A construction empire owing £7bn with £29m in the bank. Its big contracts booked profits they were losing.
Morandi Bridge collapse (Genoa)2018The designer warned in 1979 that sea air would corrode the cables. 43 died when the bridge came down.Behaved like Q2 The Coconut by the end
Grenfell Tower fire2017The cladding failed its fire tests. The Inquiry found the testing was manipulated, and a tower was wrapped in it anyway.Behaved like Q2 The Coconut by the end
Tianjin port explosions2015One overheated container of nitrocellulose. Next door, 800 tonnes of ammonium nitrate on bribed permits.Behaved like Q3 Engineered by the end
GM ignition-switch recall2014A key that slipped to off shut down the airbags. GM knew for a decade and fixed nothing.
2014 Sony Pictures hack2014North Korea wiped a studio's computers to kill a Seth Rogen comedy about killing Kim Jong-un.Behaved like Q3 Engineered by the end
Rana Plaza collapse2013Cracks aired on TV the night before. Refuse the shift, lose a month's pay. They went in.
Target data breach2013Phished the air-conditioning vendor into 40 million cards. The alarms fired. Nobody answered.Behaved like Q3 Engineered by the end
Kodak Chapter 11 Bankruptcy2012Invented the digital camera in 1975, then buried it to protect film. Bankrupt by 2012, $6.75B in debt.
BlackBerry / RIM collapse2011The iPhone shipped in 2007. RIM kept building keyboards. $70B in market value gone by 2012.
Toyota unintended-acceleration recall2010Toyota bragged internally about saving $100M by negotiating the recall down. It cost them $1.2 billion.Behaved like Q3 Engineered by the end
General Motors bankruptcy2009America's biggest carmaker spent decades ignoring the math. The bailout cost taxpayers $11.2 billion.

Filed elsewhere, behaved like Q1 Predictable

These sit in another quadrant on the map. By the end they were running this quadrant’s mechanism.

Madoff1983-2008The steadiest returns in history. None of the trades ever happened.Filed as Q-F Fraud
UK LDI / gilt crisis2022'Safe' pension hedges hid leverage that forced a gilt margin doom-loop.Filed as Q4 Where models die
Silicon Valley Bank2023A duration mismatch met a 94%-uninsured base in a digital-speed run.Filed as Q4 Where models die
Vesttoo LOC fraud2023'Collateralised' reinsurance where the bank letters of credit were forged.Filed as Q-F Fraud
BAE Systems Al-Yamamah bribery scandal2010Decades of Saudi jet contracts, and a guilty plea for false accounting. No bribery charge was ever brought.Filed as Q-F Fraud
Northern Rock bank run2007Funded long mortgages with short-term wholesale money. It froze, and Britain queued: first bank run in 150 years.Filed as Q4 Where models die
Mattel lead-paint toy recall2007Mattel audited its Chinese factories. Nobody audited the paint supplier four tiers down.Filed as Q3 Engineered
Société Générale / Jérôme Kerviel rogue trading loss2008Forged hedges made a 50 billion euro bet look flat. The 4.9 billion loss was real.Filed as Q-F Fraud
Satyam Computer Services fraud2009Years of steady IT-boom profit. The billion in bank cash was forged, one fake invoice at a time.Filed as Q-F Fraud
JPMorgan London Whale2012A new risk model halved the danger overnight. It divided by a sum instead of an average.Filed as Q4 Where models die
Cyprus bail-in2013The eurozone's first depositor bail-in. Nearly half of every euro above the insured limit became shares in the bank that lost it.Filed as Q4 Where models die
Petrobras / Lava Jato (Operation Car Wash)2014Petrobras's big contracts were inflated by design; the markup bankrolled the men who awarded them.Filed as Q-F Fraud
Volkswagen Dieselgate2015The software knew when it was being tested, and ran clean only then. 11 million cars.Filed as Q-F Fraud
Swiss franc unpeg (SNB)2015The central bank swore it would defend the floor. Three years steady, then 30% in twenty minutes.Filed as Q4 Where models die
Wells Fargo fake accounts scandal2016Eight accounts per household, the industry envy. 3.5 million were opened by no one.Filed as Q-F Fraud
Samsung Galaxy Note 7 recall2016They recalled 2.5 million phones and swapped the batteries. The replacements caught fire too.Filed as Q3 Engineered
Panama Papers / Mossack Fonseca201611.5 million files from one law firm. Every shell company had a real owner it was built to hide.Filed as Q-F Fraud
Carlos Ghosn / Nissan compensation case2018Nissan's celebrated savior was charged with under-reporting $140M in deferred pay. He fled Japan in an audio-gear case before any trial.Filed as Q-F Fraud

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