Where models die

Every event filed in Q4 Where models die

14 of these are marked: filed here, but running another quadrant’s mechanism by the end. The paperwork never changed.

• Tricolor Holdings2025Prosecutors say a subprime lender double-pledged collateral; banks saw security that wasn't there.Behaved like Q-F Fraud by the end
• First Brands Group2025Off-balance-sheet factoring hid the debt; invoices were allegedly inflated up to 50x.Behaved like Q-F Fraud by the end
• Yen carry-trade unwind2024A small BoJ hike unwound the global carry trade; Nikkei's worst since 1987.
• Silicon Valley Bank2023A duration mismatch met a 94%-uninsured base in a digital-speed run.Behaved like Q1 Predictable by the end
• First Republic Bank2023The same rate trap as SVB, triggered by contagion across 'similar' banks.
• Credit Suisse / UBS2023A 167-year-old G-SIB failed on confidence; AT1 bonds zeroed before equity.
• Adani-Hindenburg rout2023A short-seller report erased $150B from an over-levered conglomerate.
• LME nickel squeeze2022Nickel spiked 270% in two days; the exchange cancelled the trades.
• Terra / Luna collapse2022An 'algorithmic' stablecoin depegged into a mint-and-burn death spiral.Behaved like Q-F Fraud by the end
• Three Arrows Capital2022One over-levered fund defaulted and cascaded through every crypto lender.
• UK LDI / gilt crisis2022'Safe' pension hedges hid leverage that forced a gilt margin doom-loop.Behaved like Q1 Predictable by the end
• Archegos collapse2021Hidden swap leverage detonated; each bank only saw its own slice.Behaved like Q-F Fraud by the end
• Swiss franc unpeg (SNB)2015The central bank swore it would defend the floor. Three years steady, then 30% in twenty minutes.Behaved like Q1 Predictable by the end
• Cyprus bail-in2013The eurozone's first depositor bail-in. Nearly half of every euro above the insured limit became shares in the bank that lost it.Behaved like Q1 Predictable by the end
• JPMorgan London Whale2012A new risk model halved the danger overnight. It divided by a sum instead of an average.Behaved like Q1 Predictable by the end
• MF Global collapse2011He bet $6.3B on Europe's shakiest bonds. The margin calls got paid with customer money.Behaved like Q-F Fraud by the end
• 2010 Flash Crash2010The models assumed a buyer would always be there. For 36 minutes, there was none.Behaved like Q3 Engineered by the end
• Global financial crisis2008Complexity and leverage, and nobody knew who was on the other side.Behaved like Q-F Fraud by the end
• Icelandic banking collapse2008320,000 people ran banks worth ten times their GDP. All three fell in a single week.Behaved like Q2 The Coconut by the end
• Northern Rock bank run2007Funded long mortgages with short-term wholesale money. It froze, and Britain queued: first bank run in 150 years.Behaved like Q1 Predictable by the end
• Amaranth Advisors2006A leveraged bet that winter gas would outrun summer. The spread the model ruled out arrived in a week.
• LTCM1998Two Nobel laureates, 25-to-1 leverage, and a model that met reality.
• Orange County1994The richest US county levered a dull treasury into the largest municipal bankruptcy.
• Black Monday1987Portfolio insurance fed on itself until the market fell a fifth in a day.

The other four quadrants

• Q1 Predictable19
• Q2 The Coconut14
• Q3 Engineered26
• Q-F Fraud28