Risk register · entry
Q4 · Where models dieRed Sea shipping attacks
The canal never closed. Houthi missiles at Bab el-Mandeb halved Suez traffic and sent ships round Africa.
The world stops matching the model. Regime change and leverage turn a small error fatal.
Why this quadrant
From November 2023 Houthi forces in Yemen attacked merchant ships near the Bab el-Mandeb strait with missiles, drones and small boats. The Suez Canal itself stayed physically open and working, so no engineering fix applied. The risk came from an armed actor whose targets, timing and pauses followed political events in Gaza, Iran and Saudi Arabia, and could not be priced from the canal's 150-year operating record. Shipowners answered by avoidance: per IMF PortWatch, daily Suez transits fell from about 74 in 2023 to about 40 in 2024, while Cape of Good Hope transits rose from about 49 to 87. Attacks paused in late 2025, then resumed in July 2026 against Saudi-linked shipping. As of October 2026, Bab el-Mandeb traffic remained around a third of its pre-crisis level. That gap between a working asset and an unusable route is what places it in Q4.
The record
- IMF PortWatch counts show average daily Suez Canal transits fell from 73.7 in 2023 to 39.6 in 2024 (26,895 to 14,498 for the year), Bab el-Mandeb transits fell from 74.0 to 32.5 a day, and Cape of Good Hope transits rose from 49.1 to 87.0 a day.certain
- The Suez Canal Authority reported revenue of $3.991 billion in 2024, down from a record $10.25 billion in 2023, with 13,213 ships transiting in 2024 against more than 26,000 the year before.high
- US EIA data show oil flows through Bab el-Mandeb fell from 9.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 4.1 million in 2024, Suez Canal plus SUMED pipeline flows fell from 8.8 million to 4.8 million, and Cape of Good Hope flows rose from 6.2 to 9.3 million.certain
- Between November 2023 and early 2025 the Houthis targeted more than 100 merchant vessels, sinking two and killing four sailors (AP). On 7 July 2025 they attacked the bulk carriers Magic Seas and Eternity C; the IMO recorded Magic Seas sinking that day and three confirmed fatalities on Eternity C as of 9 July 2025.high
- In July 2026 the Houthis declared a naval blockade against Saudi-linked shipping in the Red Sea and struck commercial vessels transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait, per Security Council Report's October 2026 forecast.high
- Between 1 October and 1 November 2026, IMF PortWatch recorded an average of 27.9 ships a day through Bab el-Mandeb and 43.2 through the Suez Canal, against 78.6 and 76.2 in October 2023.certain
Sources
- IMF PortWatch - Daily Chokepoints Data, transit counts for Suez Canal, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Cape of Good Hope (data to 1 November 2026, queried 8 November 2026)
- U.S. Energy Information Administration - World Oil Transit Chokepoints (last updated 3 March 2026)
- International Maritime Organization - Report on Houthi attacks on merchant and commercial vessels in the Red Sea, 8 June to 9 July 2025 (9 July 2025)
- Arab News / Associated Press - Egypt's revenue from the Suez Canal plunged sharply in 2024 (17 April 2025)
- Security Council Report - October 2026 Monthly Forecast: Yemen (1 October 2026), archived copy
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