5Q Quadrants·of·Risk

Risk register · entry

Q3 · Engineered

Red Sea cable cuts

A sinking ship's dragging anchor cut Asia-Europe internet cables.

Tightly coupled systems where one small fault cascades and takes down the whole machine.

Quadrant
Q3 Engineered
Year
2024
Impact
25% of traffic
Sector
Subsea telecom
Region
MENA
Category
Technological

Why this quadrant

An anchor dragging across fibre is a routine break with a routine repair, normally weeks. These cables sat off a coast with two rival governments, and neither could issue a permit the other would honour. The cut was ordinary and the outage lasted five months, because what needed fixing was not the cable.

The record

  • Rubymar hit by Houthi anti-ship missile on 18 February 2024certain
  • Rubymar sank on 2 March 2024 (2:15am local / 23:15 GMT March 1), after ~12 days adriftcertain
  • Cargo: approximately 21,000 metric tons of fertilizer aboardcertain
  • Three cables cut: SEACOM, AAE-1, EIGcertain
  • Cut cables carried approximately 25% of regional (Middle East/Asia-Europe corridor) data traffic, per HGC Global Communicationslikely
  • AAE-1 cable restored/online mid-July 2024 (repair vessel Niwa, operated by E-Marine)likely
  • SEACOM and EIG repairs completed by late July 2024, per Houthi-controlled Yemeni ministry statementsuncertain
  • Repair delayed for months by permit disputes between Yemen's rival governmentscertain
  • No public dollar cost figure found for the outage or repair; not stated in any source revieweduncertain

Sources

  1. CBS News
  2. gCaptain
  3. The Maritime Executive
  4. Bloomberg (via search summary)
  5. NPR

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