Risk register · entry
Q2 · The CoconutBeirut port explosion
2,750t of ammonium nitrate sat unsecured for six years, then detonated.
The rare, high-impact event that was always coming, and was always going to be called unforeseeable afterwards.
Why this quadrant
Ammonium nitrate is one chemical with one failure mode, and 2,750 tonnes of it sat in Hangar 12 for six years without incident. Six quiet years is what made the seventh unimaginable. Customs had put the danger in writing in 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2018, and the answer each time was that the court had no jurisdiction.
The record
- 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate offloaded from the MV Rhosus in October 2014, stored in Hangar 12 for almost six yearscertain
- 218 deaths, roughly 7,000 injured (150+ with permanent disabilities), 300,000+ displacedcertain
- Estimated material losses of $3.8-4.6 billion; Wikipedia cites broader property-damage estimates up to $15 billionlikely
- Blast yield estimated around 1.1 kilotons TNT equivalent, one of the largest non-nuclear explosions on recordlikely
- Customs official Nehme Brax flagged the danger in writing at least four times: 2014, May 2015, February 2016, March 2018certain
- President Michel Aoun acknowledged knowing about the cargo since at least July 21, 2020, two weeks before the blastcertain
- How much ammonium nitrate actually detonated is disputed: some experts estimate only 500-1,000 tonnes remained by 2020, the rest allegedly pilfered over the yearsuncertain
- March 30, 2026: Judge Tarek Bitar closed his investigation and referred a dossier naming 70 suspects, including former ministers and security chiefs, over five years after the blastcertain
Sources
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