Risk register · entry
Q2 · The CoconutMaui / Lahaina wildfire
A downed power line in dry grass consumed historic Lahaina.
The rare, high-impact event that was always coming, and was always going to be called unforeseeable afterwards.
Why this quadrant
Grass either catches or it does not, and for decades it did not. Sugar cane land had been left to invasive grasses that now cover about a quarter of Hawaii, drying to fuel every summer. One downed line, 80 mph gusts off a passing hurricane, and an afternoon later Lahaina was gone. None of the 80 sirens sounded.
The record
- 102 confirmed deaths (2 additional people reported unaccounted for as of mid-2024)certain
- More than 2,200 structures destroyed (ATF/MFD report cites 2,173; Wikipedia cites 2,207)likely
- Damage estimate roughly $5.5 billion (NOAA, Sept 2023); some later reporting cites over $6 billionuncertain
- Wind gusts up to 80 mph from Hurricane Dora (passing ~550 miles south) plus a high-pressure system north of Hawaiicertain
- Fire ignition near utility pole 25, reported at 6:34-6:37am on Aug 8, 2023likely
- Morning fire declared contained by approximately 9:00am; afternoon reignition around 2:52-3:30pmlikely
- Fire crossed Honoapiilani Highway into Lahaina town at 4:46pmlikely
- Hawaiian Electric carried approximately $165 million in liability insurancelikely
- 2024 settlement agreement exceeding $4 billion with victims and government entitieslikely
- Roughly 25% of Hawaii's land area covered by invasive fire-prone grasses (guinea, buffel, molasses grass)likely
- Hawaii's last sugar cane plantation closed in 2016certain
- Over 80 civil defense sirens on Maui, none activated during the firecertain
Sources
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