Risk register · entry
Q2 · The CoconutMaui / Lahaina wildfire
A downed power line in dry grass consumed historic Lahaina.
The rare, high-impact event that was always coming, and was always going to be called unforeseeable afterwards.
Why this room
The payoff is simple and near-binary, structures either burn or they don't, dry grass either catches or it doesn't, but the tail is extremely fat: decades of near-zero visible loss end in a single afternoon of catastrophic, low-probability destruction, the classic Q2 Coconut signature of a quiet shell that shatters all at once.
The record
- 102 confirmed deaths (2 additional people reported unaccounted for as of mid-2024)certain
- More than 2,200 structures destroyed (ATF/MFD report cites 2,173; Wikipedia cites 2,207)likely
- Damage estimate roughly $5.5 billion (NOAA, Sept 2023); some later reporting cites over $6 billionuncertain
- Wind gusts up to 80 mph from Hurricane Dora (passing ~550 miles south) plus a high-pressure system north of Hawaiicertain
- Fire ignition near utility pole 25, reported at 6:34-6:37am on Aug 8, 2023likely
- Morning fire declared contained by approximately 9:00am; afternoon reignition around 2:52-3:30pmlikely
- Fire crossed Honoapiilani Highway into Lahaina town at 4:46pmlikely
- Hawaiian Electric carried approximately $165 million in liability insurancelikely
- 2024 settlement agreement exceeding $4 billion with victims and government entitieslikely
- Roughly 25% of Hawaii's land area covered by invasive fire-prone grasses (guinea, buffel, molasses grass)likely
- Hawaii's last sugar cane plantation closed in 2016certain
- Over 80 civil defense sirens on Maui, none activated during the firecertain
Sources
The book
This entry is one of 111 in the register. The full story, and what it cost the people who lived it, is in Risky Business by Claudia Zeisberger, David Munro and Joanna Reijgersberg-Siew.
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